如何国际收支平衡「国际收支平衡和国际收支均衡」
The Balance of Payments——The Structure of the Balance of Payments
国际收支平衡——国际收支的结构
For many A level students this is their least favourite topic. Don't panic! All will be made clear! The key point is to understand the distinction between the current account and the capital account and understand the link between them. Here goes then!
对于许多Alevel学生来说,这是他们最不喜欢的题目。不要惊慌! 一切都会变得清晰! 关键是要理解经常账户和资本账户之间的区别,并理解它们之间的联系。那就来吧!
The balance of payments measures all flows of money between the UK and the rest of the world. The current account records the movements of all goods and services into and out of the UK. The capital account (also known as the financial account) measures all capital flows carried out by individuals, firms and governments (usually for investment purposes). Before we look at these two sections individually, the diagram below gives you an overall picture of what is going on. Click on the buttons below to see the summaries of the different accounts.
Note that figures have been added for the full year 1999 to give you an idea of how the UK fairs internationally. All figures are in billions of pounds. All positive figures ( ) refer to money flowing into the UK as payment for UK exports (on the current account) or simply as investments (in the capital account). All negative figures (-) refer to money flowing out of the UK as payment for imports (on the current account) or simply for investments (on the capital account). Now for the details of the two main sections.
国际收支衡量英国和世界其他国家之间的所有资金流动。经常账户记录了所有货物和服务进出英国的情况。资本账户(也被称为金融账户)衡量个人、公司和政府进行的所有资本流动(通常用于投资目的)。在我们单独研究这两个部分之前,下图为您提供了一个总体情况。点击下面的按钮可以看到不同账户的摘要。
请注意,为了让你了解英国在国际上的表现,已经加入了1999年全年的数字。所有的数字都是以十亿英镑为单位。所有的正数( )是指流入英国的资金,作为对英国出口的支付(在经常账户上)或仅仅作为投资(在资本账户上)。所有的负数(-)是指流向英国的资金,作为对进口的支付(在经常账户上)或简单的投资(在资本账户上)。现在来看看这两个主要部分的细节。
The current account 活期账户The current account records the movement of all goods and services into and out of the UK. Some of you may be thinking, "what happened to the visibles and invisibles?" While some examiners might let you get away with using these terms, these old terms have not been used officially for almost five years!
活期账户记录了所有货物和服务进出英国的情况。你们中的一些人可能在想,"可见物和不可见物怎么了?" 虽然有些考官可能会让你免于使用这些术语,但这些旧的术语已经有近五年没有正式使用了!
Trade in goods 货物贸易The visible section is now called the trade in goods section. Both names are equally easy to remember. This section records all trade in goods, hence the name! Another way of thinking about it is that all goods are visible, hence the old name.
可见部分现在被称为货物贸易部分。这两个名字同样容易记住。这一部分记录了所有的货物贸易,因此而得名! 另一种思考方式是,所有的货物都是可见的,所以叫旧名。
There are hundreds of different items that fall under this category. Oil is one of the biggest, especially given that the UK has been a net exporter of oil for the last 20 years. All manufactured goods are included, like cars, all household appliances, computers and anything else you can think of. Textbooks often refer to 'semi-manufactures'. These are items that have not quite become finished manufactures. Car parts might be an example. All raw materials that are needed for any production process are also included, as are all food items.
有数百种不同的物品属于这个类别。石油是最大的项目之一,特别是考虑到英国在过去20年里一直是石油的净出口国。所有的制成品都包括在内,如汽车、所有家用电器、电脑和其他你能想到的东西。教科书中经常提到 "半成品"。这些是还没有完全成为成品的物品。汽车零部件可能就是一个例子。任何生产过程所需的所有原材料也包括在内,所有食品也包括在内。
If the UK sells a Rover car (made in Britain) to someone in a French car showroom, then this is called an export and appears as an inflow of money ( ) in the 'trade in goods' section of the current account. If Renault (the French car company) sell a car to someone in a British car showroom, then this is called an import and appears as an outflow of money (-) in the same section.
如果英国将一辆罗孚汽车(英国制造)卖给了法国汽车展厅的某个人,那么这被称为出口,在经常账户的 "货物贸易 "部分显示为资金流入( )。如果雷诺(法国汽车公司)向英国汽车展厅的人出售一辆汽车,那么这被称为进口,并在同一部分显示为货币流出(-)。
It is very important to follow the money. When the UK exports a car, the car may well go abroad, but the payment for the car flows into the UK, hence the plus sign ( ) in the current account. When the UK imports a French Renault, the car comes into the UK, but the payment flows out of the country, hence the minus sign (-) in the current account.
跟着钱走是非常重要的。当英国出口一辆汽车时,汽车很可能流向国外,但汽车的付款却流入英国,因此在经常账户中出现加号( )。当英国进口一辆法国雷诺汽车时,汽车进入了英国,但付款却流向了国外,因此经常账户中出现了负号(-)。
The 'trade in goods' balance is often referred to as the trade balance. Adding up the total value of exports of goods and subtracting the total value of imports of goods calculate this. In the case of the UK, this balance is nearly always negative, so it is known as the trade deficit; the UK always imports more goods than it exports.
货物贸易 "平衡通常被称为贸易平衡。将货物出口总值相加,再减去货物进口总值,就可以计算出这个数字。就英国而言,这一余额几乎总是负的,所以它被称为贸易赤字;英国进口的货物总是多于出口的货物。
Trade in services 服务贸易In the days of 'visible' and 'invisible', services, investment income and transfers were all lumped in together in the 'invisibles' section. The current account only had two sections: visible and invisible.
在 "可见 "和 "不可见 "的时代,服务、投资收入和转移都被归入 "不可见 "部分。经常账户只有两个部分:可见和不可见。
Trade in services is now a separate section, as are the other two categories (see next two sub-sections). Although it is not quite so easy to picture international trade in services (only about 20% of all services are potentially tradable), good examples include financial services (e.g. banking and insurance), transport services (particularly shipping), law, accountancy, management consultancy and tourism.
服务贸易现在是一个单独的部分,其他两个类别也是如此(见下两个小节)。尽管描绘国际服务贸易并不那么容易(所有服务中只有约20%可能是可交易的),但好的例子包括金融服务(如银行和保险)、运输服务(特别是航运)、法律、会计、管理咨询和旅游。
Again, it is important to follow the money. Unlike the 'trade in goods' section, where the good goes one way and the money goes the other, with the 'trade in services' section the money tends to follow the service. If a British person goes on holiday to France flying with Air France, all payments will count as imports because the money flows out of the UK (-). The payment for the flight goes back to France, and any money actually spent on food, drink and hotels ends up in France.
同样,跟着钱走是很重要的。与 "货物贸易 "部分不同的是,在 "服务贸易 "部分,货物是单向的,钱是另一个方向的,而钱往往是跟着服务走的。如果一个英国人去法国度假,乘坐法国航空公司的飞机,所有的付款将被算作进口,因为资金从英国流出(-)。飞行费用回到法国,而任何实际花在食物、饮料和酒店上的钱最终都在法国。
Again, you can see why these items were referred to as 'invisible'. Unlike, say, a car, you can't 'see' a holiday or a financial service. You experience a holiday, or a financial service, and probably get a lot of benefit from them, but they are not tangible.
同样,你可以看到为什么这些项目被称为 "无形的"。与汽车不同,你无法 "看到 "一个假期或金融服务。你经历了一个假期,或一项金融服务,并可能从他们那里得到很多好处,但他们不是有形的。
Investment income 投资收入This also used to be under the old 'invisibles'. You may know it as 'IPDs' or interest, profit and dividends. The new title of investment income makes sense because interest, profit and dividends are all forms of income earned on investments. Interest is earned on bank deposits and government bonds, profit is earned from investments in a business enterprise and dividends are earned annually on shares.
这也曾经是在旧的 "无形资产 "之下。你可能知道它是'IPD'或利息、利润和股息。投资收入的新标题是有意义的,因为利息、利润和红利都是通过投资获得的收入形式。利息是通过银行存款和政府债券赚取的,利润是通过对商业企业的投资赚取的,股息是通过股票每年赚取的。
The key point to note here is that these incomes (annual flows of money) are derived from invested capital (stocks of wealth) that appears in the capital account. This is the crucial link between the current and the capital accounts. Interest is earned on money invested in the 'other investment' section of the capital account, and the bonds in the 'portfolio investment' section of the capital account (see the green line on the diagram above). Profit is earned on money invested in businesses in the 'direct investment' section of the capital account (see the red line of the diagram above). Dividends are earned from the investment in shares that appear in the 'portfolio investment' section of the capital account (see the blue line on the diagram above).
这里需要注意的关键点是,这些收入(每年的货币流量)来自于资本账户中出现的投资资本(财富存量)。这是经常账户和资本账户之间的关键环节。投资于资本账户 "其他投资 "部分的资金,以及资本账户 "证券投资 "部分的债券(见上图中的绿线),可以获得利息。利润是投资于资本账户 "直接投资 "部分的企业的资金所赚取的(见上图红线)。股息是从资本账户中 "组合投资 "部分的股票投资中赚取的(见上图中的蓝线)。
Transfers 转移This also used to be under the old 'invisibles'. Transfers are now separated into a separate section because they are different in the sense that they do not reflect any actual trade. This section is split into two; government transfers and transfers made by other sectors.
这也曾经是在旧的 "无形资产 "项下。转移现在被分开到一个单独的部分,因为它们的不同之处在于它们不反映任何实际的贸易。这一部分分为两部分:政府转移和其他部门的转移。
Government transfers include contributions to the EU (most of which is used for the Common Agricultural Policy or CAP) and foreign aid. These are flows of money out of the UK (-). The 'other sectors' section many highlights the transfer of assets by individuals to foreign bank accounts.
政府转移包括对欧盟的捐款(其中大部分用于共同农业政策或CAP)和外国援助。这些都是流出英国的资金(-)。其他部门 "部分强调了个人向外国银行账户的资产转移。
The capital account 资本账户The Capital account measures all the short term and long term monetary transactions between the UK and the rest of the world. Generally, these flows of money are associated with saving and investment, but speculation has become a big part of the account in recent years. Officially, the name has changed to 'Capital and Financial Accounts', but examiners seem to be happy for you to use 'capital account', probably because it is a lot less hassle to write down under exam conditions! Here are the four main sections.
资本账户衡量英国与世界其他国家之间的所有短期和长期货币交易。一般来说,这些资金流动与储蓄和投资有关,但近年来,投机已成为该账户的一个重要部分。官方名称已改为 "资本和金融账户",但考官们似乎很乐意让你使用 "资本账户",可能是因为在考试条件下写下来要省事得多! 以下是四个主要部分。
Direct investment 直接投资This refers to money that flows across national boundaries for the purpose of investing in a business enterprise. Essentially, it records the transfer of ownership of UK or foreign businesses. It also records money invested abroad for a new business venture. When Marks & Spencer build a new store in, say, Hong Kong, this will count as an outflow of money from the UK (-) in the direct investment section of the capital account. When Nissan built its factory in Sunderland, this counted as an inflow of money ( ) in the same section.
这指的是为了投资于商业企业而跨越国界的资金流动。基本上,它记录了英国或外国企业的所有权转让。它也记录了为一个新的商业企业在国外投资的资金。当Marks & Spencer在香港建立一个新的商店时,在资本账户的直接投资部分,这将算作从英国流出的资金(-)。当日产在桑德兰建厂时,这在同一部分被算作资金的流入( )。
Note that earnings from these investments (profit) appear in the investment income section of the current account. The initial investment by M & S in Hong Kong will appear as a one off outflow of money from the UK (-) in the capital account, but each subsequent year M & S should make profits (hopefully!). These will appear as inflows of money into the UK ( ) in the investment income section of the current account.
请注意,这些投资的收益(利润)出现在经常账户的投资收入部分。M&S公司在香港的初始投资将在资本账户中显示为来自英国的一次性资金流出(-),但随后的每一年M&S公司都应该获得利润(希望如此!)。这些将在经常账户的投资收入部分显示为流入英国的资金( )。
Portfolio investment 证券投资This is money that flows across national boundaries for the purpose of investing in shares and bonds. If someone in the UK buys some shares in an American company, this will count as an outflow of money from the UK (-) in the portfolio investment section of the capital account. If an American buys some shares in a British company, this will count as an inflow of money into the UK ( ) in the same section
这是为了投资于股票和债券而跨越国界的资金流动。如果英国人购买了一家美国公司的一些股票,这将被算作资本账户中证券投资部分的英国资金流出(-)。如果一个美国人购买了一家英国公司的一些股票,这将被算作是在同一部分中流入英国的资金( )。
Again, note that the earnings from these shares and bonds (dividends and interest) will appear, in subsequent years, in the investment income section of the current account. For as long as the UK citizen holds onto the American shares, he will receive an annual dividend, which will represent an inflow of money into the UK ( ) on the investment income section of the current account.
同样,请注意,这些股票和债券的收益(股息和利息)将在随后几年出现在经常账户的投资收益部分。只要该英国公民持有美国股票,他就会收到年度股息,这将代表经常账户投资收入部分的资金流入英国( )。
Other investment 其他投资This section can be quite hectic because it includes short-term 'hot money' banking flows. It also includes net government borrowing from foreigners.
这一部分可能是相当繁忙的,因为它包括短期的 "热钱 "银行流动。它还包括政府向外国人的净借款。
Official reserves 官方储备This refers to the reserves of gold and foreign currencies held by the Bank of England for use by the government. The government might use some of their reserves to artificially manipulate the value of the pound; although this rarely happens any more because the pound is freely floating and the government do not seem particularly keen to intervene in currency markets. After the last government's horrific experience of trying to defend the pound within the Exchange Rate Mechanism, all governments since have left the pound alone to find its own level in the currency markets.
这指的是英格兰银行持有的供政府使用的黄金和外币储备。政府可能会使用他们的一些储备来人为地操纵英镑的价值;尽管这很少发生,因为英镑是自由浮动的,政府似乎并不特别热衷于干预货币市场。在上届政府试图在汇率机制中保护英镑的可怕经历之后,所有政府都让英镑在货币市场中找到自己的水平。
Net errors and omissions 净误差和遗漏You may know this as the balancing item. I'm afraid this name has changed as well. The new name actually makes more sense. The term 'balancing item' suggests that this entry is an actual 'item'. This is misleading. The balancing item was only ever a number stuck into the account to represent mistakes, so the new name is entirely appropriate.
你可能知道这就是平衡项。恐怕这个名字也已经改变了。新的名称实际上更有意义。平衡项 "这一术语表明,这个条目是一个实际的 "项目"。这是个误导。平衡项目只是一个卡在账户中的数字,代表错误,所以新的名字是完全合适的。
As you will see in the next section of this Learn-It, the balance of payments always balances, so, theoretically, the net errors and omissions item should always equal zero. That it rarely does reflects the fact that it is very difficult to collect all of the data required for the balance of payments in a totally accurate fashion. Millions of pieces of information have to be collected from around the world. There is often a time lag as well. It is interesting to note that when past figures for the balance of payments are revised as the years go by, the figures for 'net errors and omissions' get smaller and smaller as the errors are found and corrected.
正如你在下一节所看到的,国际收支总是平衡的,因此,理论上,净错误和遗漏项目应该总是等于零。但是,这很少反映出这样一个事实:以完全准确的方式收集国际收支所需的所有数据是非常困难的。必须从世界各地收集数以百万计的信息。通常也有一个时间滞后。有趣的是,当过去的国际收支数字随着时间的推移被修订时,"净错误和遗漏 "的数字随着错误的发现和纠正而变得越来越小。
Why does the balance of payments always balance? 为什么国际收支总是平衡?Before we start, here is the relevant formula for the balance of payments.
Current account balance Capital account balance net errors and omissions = 0
在我们开始之前,以下是国际收支的相关公式。
经常账户余额 资本账户余额 净误差和遗漏=0
As we said above, net errors and omissions simply reflect mistakes. Assuming no mistakes are made, then the formula will look like this.
Current account Capital account = 0, hence Current account = Capital account.
正如我们上面所说,净误差和遗漏只是反映了错误。假设没有犯错,那么这个公式就会是这样的。
经常账户 资本账户=0,因此经常账户=资本账户。
In other words, if a country has a deficit on the current account (more imports than exports) then it must have an equal and opposite surplus on the capital account (and vice versa).
换句话说,如果一个国家在经常账户上有赤字(进口多于出口),那么它在资本账户上一定有相同和相反的盈余(反之亦然)。
Let's think about this. If you buy a Mercedes car, what are the flows of monies involved? You go to the Mercedes showroom and buy the car using pounds. This money will end up back in Germany. But the German owners of Mercedes do not want the money in pounds. They will want Euros.
让我们思考一下这个问题。如果你买一辆奔驰车,涉及的资金流动是什么?你去奔驰的展厅,用英镑买了这辆车。这笔钱最终会回到德国。但奔驰的德国老板不想要英镑的钱。他们要的是欧元。
How are the pounds changed into Euros? 英镑如何换成欧元?
In the currency market, which forms part of the capital market.
Where will this transaction appear in the balance of payments?
In the capital account, probably under 'other investment'.
So, as you can see, any transaction that takes place in the current account must have an equal and opposite transaction somewhere in the capital account. Of course, in the real world, countries that run large current account deficits (like the UK) have to attract this foreign currency in the first place. This is not such a problem in the UK; we are lucky that we have successful and sophisticated capital markets. Go to the next Learn-It to find out more about how the UK manages to attract foreign investment to keep the capital account in surplus.
在货币市场上,这是资本市场的一部分。
这项交易在国际收支中会出现在哪里?
在资本账户中,可能在 "其他投资 "下。
因此,正如你所看到的,在经常账户中发生的任何交易,都必须在资本账户的某个地方有一个相等和相反的交易。当然,在现实世界中,有大量经常账户赤字的国家(如英国)首先必须吸引这些外汇。在英国,这不是一个问题;我们很幸运,因为我们有成功和成熟的资本市场。进入下一个学习内容,了解更多关于英国如何设法吸引外国投资以保持资本账户的盈余。