宏观经济学主要研究什么「宏观经济学与微观经济学区别」

20 世纪的大萧条催生了宏观经济学，亚洲金融危机被视为亚洲模式的失败，2008 年的金融危机则被认为属于新自由主义甚至资本主义的失败，但是事实真是如此吗？在历史的教训之下，美联储等监管者至少成功避免了又一次大萧条。理解危机和应对危机一样重要，历史的正义需要时间得以伸张，而关于大萧条的解释今天仍旧没有定论。对于金融危机的解释我们需要更多思考，或许下一次危机并没那么遥远。

The Great Depression of the 20th century gave birth to macroeconomics. The Asian financial crisis was regarded as the failure of the Asian model, while the financial crisis in 2008 was regarded as the failure of neoliberalism and even capitalism. But is this really the case? Under the lessons of history, the Federal Reserve and other regulators at least succeeded in avoiding another Great Depression. Understanding the crisis is as important as coping with it. Historical justice needs time to be done, but the explanation of the Great Depression is still inconclusive today. We need to think more about the explanation of the financial crisis. Maybe the next crisis is not so far away.

无数金融危机研究已经明确指出，过度举债必然导致信贷崩溃。哈佛大学教授肯尼思·罗格夫等人研究指出，根据 800 年金融危机历史数据，国家、银行、个人和企业在好年景时总是一再过度负债，而不考虑衰退不可避免地来临时会出现什么风险。更进一步看，对比私人债务，政府和政府担保债务问题更大，往往也是金融危机的幕后主角——因为它们常常具备超额信用，可以累积到规模很大而且长期无须经受市场检验，这类债务通常又缺乏必要担保，而且较为隐蔽，很可能达到「债务忍无可忍」的临界点才被发觉。肯尼思·罗格夫等人认为，在固有监管之下，很难避免债务危机，错误难以避免。

Numerous financial crisis studies have clearly pointed out that excessive borrowing will inevitably lead to credit collapse. Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff and others pointed out that according to the historical data of financial crisis in 800 years, countries, banks, individuals and enterprises are always over-indebted in good years, regardless of the risks that will inevitably occur when recession comes. Further, compared with private debt, the government and government-guaranteed debt have a bigger problem, and they are often the protagonists behind the financial crisis—because they often have excess credit, which can be accumulated to a large scale and need not be tested by the market for a long time. Such debts usually lack the necessary guarantee and are relatively hidden, which is likely to reach the critical point of "unbearable debt" before being discovered. Kenneth Rogoff and others believe that under the inherent supervision, it is difficult to avoid debt crisis and mistakes.

2000 年以后随着信息产业泡沫的破裂，很多资金流入地产行业使得美国的房价一直持续稳步上涨，这样的背景下如果次贷客户能还款自然就是银行的优质资产，如果有朝一日还不了，那把作为抵押的房子收回了，因为房子是一直增值的，所以银行也照样赚了。而「两房」放贷的钱有从哪来了？通俗说就是「借」，好听点就是发行房贷抵押债券（MBS），让各个投资机构来购买。借的越多，贷出的也就越多，那么银行赚的也就越多。

After 2000, with the bursting of the information industry bubble, many funds flowed into the real estate industry, which made the house prices in the United States keep rising steadily. Under this background, if subprime customers can repay their loans, they will naturally be the bank's high-quality assets. If they can't repay them one day, they will take back the mortgaged house, because the house has been increasing in value, so the bank will still make profits. And where did the money from Fannie and Freddie come from? Popularly speaking, it means "borrowing", but at best, it means issuing mortgage-backed bonds (MBS) for various investment institutions to buy. The more you borrow, the more you lend, and the more you earn.

为了吸纳更多投资者购买 MBS 债券（或者说借钱给银行），这些债券被分类（金融机构叫它是「结构化」）成了从 AAA、AA、A、BBB……一直到 B 若干风险等级，风险逐次升高，当然，债券利率也就逐次升高。一旦房贷里有违约的情况出现，那么首先受损的是高风险债券购买者，但低风险债券的购买者依然可以兑现。这样一来，最「安全」的 AAA 级债券被社保等机构投资者买下，其余高风险债券被对冲基金吃下，大伙各取所需。

In order to attract more investors to buy MBS bonds (or lend money to banks), these bonds are classified (financial institutions call them "structured") into a number of risk levels from AAA, AA, A, BBB…… to B, and the risks are rising one after another, of course, the bond interest rates are rising one after another. Once there is default in the mortgage, the buyers of high-risk bonds will suffer first, but the buyers of low-risk bonds can still cash in. As a result, the most "safe" AAA bonds were bought by institutional investors such as social security, and the rest of the high-risk bonds were eaten by hedge funds, so everyone got what they needed.

持有两房债券的投资人往往还会购买一份保险【也就是 CDS Credit Default Swap，信贷违约掉期，或者称作信贷违约交换，即通过定期交付预定的息费，在违约事件发生的时候，投资者将手中的债券移交给 CDS 的卖家，第一时间换取债券的面值（这是很重要的，因为企业真正的清盘偿付过程是漫长的，作为债权人即使完全收回本金，也要等待很长的时间），从而在根本上消除了违约风险。从实质上看，CDS 应该接近保险的概念】

Investors holding Fannie and Freddie bonds often buy an insurance [that is, CDS Credit Default Swap, or credit default swap, that is, by regularly paying a predetermined interest fee, when a default event occurs, investors hand over the bonds in their hands to the sellers of CDS, and exchange the face value of the bonds for the first time (this is very important because the real liquidation and repayment process of enterprises is long, and even if the creditors fully recover the principal, they have to wait for a long time). In essence, CDS should be close to the concept of insurance]

2008 年之后，全球经济开始进行大调整，而 2010 年开始，「后危机时代」一词已经开始流行。从 2011 年开始，这也是全球经济繁荣幻相开始破灭的一年。截至 2011 年第二季度，美德法日英意六大发达国家，没有一个国家的产出超过 2008 年危机前的水平，其中恢复较好的美国和德国也只是接近危机前的水平。

After 2008, the global economy began to undergo great adjustment, and since 2010, the term "post-crisis era" has become popular. Starting from 2011, this is also the year when the illusion of global economic prosperity began to burst. As of the second quarter of 2011, none of the six developed countries, namely, the United States, Germany, Japan, Britain and Italy, has exceeded the pre-crisis level in 2008, and the United States and Germany, which have recovered well, are only close to the pre-crisis level.

理解危机只是解决危机的开始。肯尼思·罗格夫认为人性永恒，无论金融狂热或金融危机看起来多么与众不同，都与其他国家或过去时期所经历的危机存在极多共同之处。进一步而言，如果我们能够认识到债务工具的不可或缺及其潜在风险，那么，如何平衡债务带来的风险和机遇，将是政策制定者、投资者和普通民众都不能忽视的挑战。

Understanding the crisis is only the beginning of solving the crisis. Kenneth Rogoff believes that human nature is eternal, and no matter how different financial fanaticism or financial crisis may seem, it has much in common with other countries or crises experienced in the past. Furthermore, if we can recognize the indispensability of debt instruments and their potential risks, how to balance the risks and opportunities brought by debt will be a challenge that policy makers, investors and ordinary people cannot ignore.

除了忙碌的各级政府，央行的角色也日渐重要起来。2013 年年中陡然而至的钱荒，将中国金融体系的脆弱一面暴露出来。事实上，在每一轮危机的台前幕后，央行从来都是最为重要的力量——央行能否正确地使用这种力量，在很大程度上将会决定中国经济的未来道路。

In addition to the busy governments at all levels, the role of the central bank has become increasingly important. The sudden shortage of money in mid-2013 exposed the fragile side of China's financial system. In fact, the central bank has always been the most important force before and after every crisis. Whether the central bank can use this force correctly will determine the future of China's economy to a great extent.

货币政策长期沦为政治角力品的危害不浅。国外相关研究表明，央行独立程度与经济发展之间具有正相关关系。由此可见，央行独立度至关重要，不仅关乎货币政策有效性，对于经济增长全局也善莫大焉。没有规则可言的货币政策，必然不会形成良性的经济环境。

Monetary policy has been reduced to political wrestling for a long time. Foreign related research shows that there is a positive correlation between central bank independence and economic development. It can be seen that the independence of the central bank is very important, which is not only related to the effectiveness of monetary policy, but also good for the overall economic growth. Monetary policy without rules will not form a benign economic environment.

货币主义大师弗里德曼曾经表示，「中央银行应该是与立法、司法及行政部门同等的一个独立的政府部门，而且它的行动受制于司法部门的解释」。对比之下，中国央行的相对独立性或者相对不独立性均在于没有相关制度保障。目前约束条件之下，更为现实的增加央行权威性的举措是：首先，货币政策尽可能采用市场化调节方式；其次，当央行独立性难以达到与行政部门同等高度时，制定货币政策目标之际，第一位是尽可能保证规则化，同时也应加大货币政策决策过程的透明度与公开度。

Friedman, a master of monetarism, once said that "the central bank should be an independent government department equal to the legislative, judicial and administrative departments, and its actions are subject to the interpretation of the judicial department". In contrast, the relative independence or non-independence of the People's Bank of China lies in the lack of relevant institutional guarantees. Under the current constraints, the more realistic measures to increase the authority of the central bank are: First, monetary policy should adopt market-oriented adjustment methods as much as possible; Secondly, when the independence of the central bank is difficult to reach the same height as that of the administrative department, when formulating the monetary policy objectives, the first priority is to ensure the regularization as much as possible, and at the same time, the transparency and openness of the monetary policy decision-making process should be increased.